filkertom: Thirty-Nine Years Ago Today...

Tom Smith (

filkertom) wrote,
@ 2008-07-20 08:40:00

Entry tags:

science, space

Thirty-Nine Years Ago Today...
... we came in peace for all mankind.

In case you're interested and you haven't got it already, here's my cover of Leslie Fish's "Hope Eyrie".

What would you really like to see done next with the space program? I'm thinking serious Moonbase. Two steps beyond proof of concept: We've got to show that we can engineer a sustainable city-sized living space without a native biosphere. We as a species are too damn vulnerable right now.

(Post a new comment)

madamruppy
2008-07-20 12:52 pm UTC (link)

I agree. I think that we have the technology to do so but not the necessary mandate to do it. So much of the general populace see space exploration as nonessential when the opposite is true. So many of our modern conveniences owe their existance to our space program. I wish it were possible to wave a magic wand and make people and the government understand. I'd sure as hell rather be spending trillions of our dollars on space than on killing more people.

(Reply to this)

	siliconshaman 2008-07-20 01:33 pm UTC (link)
	Moonbase, O'Neill colony, hollowed out asteroid or moonlet [Cruthnie is in a good orbit for that]...whatever, just so long as we get off this damn mud-ball! Phrases about eggs and baskets apply here! and for the amount Bush has spent on his damn stupid war we could have done it, twice! Edited at 2008-07-20 01:34 pm UTC (Reply to this) (Thread)

nimitzbrood
2008-07-20 05:11 pm UTC (link)

I'll second this highly.

The chances of an extinction level event increase with each decade or so and we have _zero_ defense to prevent us going the way of the dinosaurs.

And before someone argues that our technology will save us I'll respond...NOPE.

I've spent the last 17+ years working with technology in the I/T field. I've also spent a good portion of that time working personally on mechanical technology and other things. And quite frankly...it's fragile. Look at how often cars need to be repaired, power goes out, storms stop information flow, etc. It's _fragile_. (And with things like the "throwaway society" it's getting _more_ fragile not less.)

I can tell you right now that unless we find a way to make local electrical power not based on the immediate environment we will have NO recourse if the environment around us gets screwed and the "grid" goes down.

I for one would like to be off this rock when that sort of thing happens or at least know that my progeny is.

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siliconshaman
2008-07-20 10:27 pm UTC (link)

Doesn't even need an asteroid or some other big spectacular 'hollywood disaster movie' level event... I've been studying global climate change since 1987, when I did my final year thesis on it.

Believe me, a slow degradation of our agri-tech base combining with the inherent fragility of the industrial supply chain is more than enough to tip over our culture from growth to decay, and as you point out, it wouldn't take long before that becomes irrevocable...
but the really scary thing is this.

We're already on that downward spiral... and it's a really short ride to the bottom.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

nimitzbrood
2008-07-20 11:03 pm UTC (link)

*nod* I can't agree more.

My gut feel is that if nothing is fixed we'll start seeing serious infrastructure problems within the coming decade.

The more complex the technology the more infrastructure it needs to be produced.

The more "dirty" (ie. non-green) infrastructure it takes to produce that technology the faster the environment fails.

So it's a race to see if we can come up with high-tech green solutions before we kill ourselves. And we're doing a pretty good job of killing ourselves already.

Our nice pampered US of A is going to feel it before other countries first because we're far too dependent on technology and second because we are the glutton country of the world.

In my opinion if nothing changes for the better we're going to seriously crash as a civilization in fifty years.

If we don't get off this rock soon we won't be able to...

*my wife yanks soap-box out form under my feet*

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siliconshaman
2008-07-20 11:18 pm UTC (link)

Agreed...although I'd say the time scale is a lot shorter.

Infrastructure problems sometime within the next 5 years, and probably a complete failure in certain areas [like the USA] within 20. Speaking as someone who's studied this problem for the last couple of decades. We're screwed.

To be perfectly honest, I do not think we're going to make it. Or at least, not all of us.

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bosswriter
2008-07-20 11:44 pm UTC (link)

The urban areas will be devastated first as they have no means for self-sufficiency. The close-in rural will survive only as long as they can defend themselves from the urban masses who find their way there.

Those secluded in mountains or other remote areas will survive the longest.

Grim but I believe inevitable.

Sadly an established moon base would have given us the ability to survive not just there but the technology would be usable here as well.

It may be too late, but we should go down swinging.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

nimitzbrood
2008-07-20 11:53 pm UTC (link)

I disagree. I started out life in the city, lived a year or more on ten Wisconsin acres, and have lived the rest of the time in suburbia here and there.

As long as people have the will and can learn to re-use resources there is a good chance to survive even in an urban environment. For instance you can use a car alternator and a ceiling fan and make a basic wind generator for use on the top of the buildings. The big problem in an urban environment is water but if the climate becomes humid that just requires plastic sheeting.

The first problem is that you need to set up defenses along with those things or the human cockroaches will eat you alive. And that means guns, knives, bows, swords, spears, and anything defensive you can devise out of the available materials.

*sigh*

I hope like hell we can beat this one. Beating it requires hard sacrifices no matter which direction we take but the reward in one direction (space) is the universe. The other direction...well...survival...maybe...

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siliconshaman
2008-07-21 09:10 am UTC (link)

I dunno, I think the urban areas could go self-sufficient, converting lawns into vegetable gardens etc. ... whether they do is another matter.

Collapse is predictable, what happens after that isn't, the system becomes non-liner and chaotic.

Agreed with you on the going down fighting...apart from anything else, the more we prepare, the shorter the recovery time and the less we'll loose.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

nimitzbrood
2008-07-20 11:46 pm UTC (link)

I think being as inventive as we are we'll manage to stretch it to 8 or 10 years. There's a lot you can do to bypass technological problems in infrastructure.

Sad to say though I think you're right and that not all of us are going to make it. Oddly I find that a great amount of SF/Fantasy fandom would be on my list of possible survivors. There seems to be a greater amount of "home grown" skills in this bunch than in other groups.

Oh well I guess I'll just have to start stockpiling low-tech weapons. Thankfully I already have started growing some of my own food. If I can put together a solar powered hydroponics system and make a greenhouse out of the garden area that will be a good thing.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

siliconshaman
2008-07-21 09:04 am UTC (link)

The thing that gives me hope is the surprising amount of savvy that exists in odd corners of society.

"Civilisation" is going to fall, that much is inevitable. Some areas will loose their technological base, again a given. But there are enough people with enough know-how and determination that the coming 'Dark Age' isn't going to be so Dark, or so long. [I hope]

And I rather think that once we've had your noses rubbed in it collectively, we as a species might just come out of this stronger and in a better position to head on out to the stars.

Because that re-purposing of technology works both ways, and something like a solar powered hydroponics system is one of the systems we'd need on long space voyages for example.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

	batyatoon 2008-07-20 01:50 pm UTC (link)
	I was talking about the environment with someone at work the other day, and successfully convinced her that funding the space program is important toward environmental issues both in terms of spinoff technology and knowledge acquired. Go me. :D (Reply to this) (Thread)

	nimitzbrood 2008-07-20 11:56 pm UTC (link)
	THANK YOU! All it takes is people to change the minds of other people! :-) (Reply to this) (Parent)

joshuwain
2008-07-20 02:03 pm UTC (link)

Thanks for posting that, Tom; I listened to your version and then went back and listened to Leslie's. I only met her once, in person, and she was such a neat person, I've never forgotten it. (It was at a Furry con and she had these little cat ears on!) :)

That song is uplifting and encouraging; just the thing I need now and then.

As for the space program, I would love to see work commence on a space elevator. I think that's one of those things that will drive down the cost of travel to the stars and encourage more and more people to think of other planets as within our reach.

In addition to a manned station on the Moon and Mars, a "beanpole" would really help a lot, I think.

Thoughts?

Yours,
Sylvan (Dave)

(Reply to this) (Thread)

	brmj 2008-07-22 10:11 pm UTC (link)
	That would certainly help. We'll need a good way to produce lots of high quality carbon nanotubes first, but I bet it will be possible in the next fifty years, possibly much sooner. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	jcw_da_dmg 2008-07-20 02:08 pm UTC (link)
	Moonbase is a necessary first step for almost anything else we want to accomplish outside our gravity well. (Reply to this)

ravenclaw_eric
2008-07-20 03:18 pm UTC (link)

A realio-trulio space station, not the half-assed versions we've had, would be a great first step. Moonbases have the problem of water, but as Heinlein said, once you're in Earth orbit, you're halfway to everywhere in the Solar System, and I know there's ice out there.

For the money we've spent on foolishness (I'd give an example that irritates me, but I'd get screamed right down) we could have colonies on bloody Pluto right now, let alone the Moon.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

archiver_tim
2008-07-20 08:42 pm UTC (link)

You mean like a spinning space station, even if only looks like a big bone, that can give up 1/3rd G, 1/6th G and full earth gravity, so we can find out if we can grow plants in less-than-earth gravity, but equal to Mars or moom gravity. Or if astronauts who go to sleep in simulated gravities will need to spend less time on space treadmills to battle of effects of zero-g. Meanwhile have a consistent micro-gravity for growing big crystals ans such.

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shockwave77598
2008-07-21 02:53 pm UTC (link)

Two problems. One, the only reason for a space station with gravity is as a waystation for non astronauts to someplace else. NullGee gives you the ability to research and manufacture that no facility on Earth can come close to producing. (Ex: You can mix oil and water in space) And Two, even if we could lift that much mass (we can't), actually building something in orbit while it is spinning provides engineers like me countless hours of amusement as we try to think up a viable method of how one can actually assemble such a thing. While lowering segments from the center out sounds simple, you have to remember that you must thrust the segment as you go down to give it it's rotation, or it just flings out in straight line while the rest of the station spins and crashes into it. And while you do that, you must also do the identical action to the opposite side to keep everything balanced...

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	maiac 2008-07-20 03:30 pm UTC (link)
	Next? We're long overdue for the successor to the space shuttle. The technology is almost 30 years old, for cryin' out loud. The next vehicle needs to be designed with trips to the Moon (for starters) in mind, so we can build that lunar base. (Reply to this) (Thread)

kengr
2008-07-21 01:25 am UTC (link)

No, we need to replace the Shuttle with *at least* two *different* vehicles. A much smaller passenger and light cargo vehicle. And *bigger* heavy cargo vehicle. The heavy cargo vehicle could likely be just as cheap as an expendable (with semi-recoverable upper stages).

No way do you want *anything* launched from the ground trying to get to the moon.

Instead you build an orbital tug that can ferry stuff to and from geosynch orbit easily. With extra tanks that can haul a moon lander into lunar orbit.

energy-wise, it's actually easier to go to an asteroid than the moon.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

shockwave77598
2008-07-21 03:58 pm UTC (link)

That is the plan. Ares1 is a smaller rocket with solid first stage that only propels a manned capsule. Ares5 is a monster that lifts more tonnage and is not manrated. Non-manrated means testing isn't as extensive and it costs less to get it going. Manrated systems go through testing the likes of which average folks would think silly, until they realize that a little fault is all it takes to kill everyone on board.

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acelightning
2008-07-20 03:35 pm UTC (link)

Damn, that makes me feel old! (I've mentioned before, I think, that I was working for Grumman Aviation - the makers of the Lunar Modules - at the time.)

I want a space station and Luna City. I want to hold my 100th birthday party in 2047 in the rowdiest, raunchiest dive and/or the classiest five-star restaurant in Luna City. I want to see the ships for the Big Jump being assembled in high Earth orbit... and watch at least the first of them break free and head out. I want to be on it!

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	siliconshaman 2008-07-20 10:35 pm UTC (link)
	I'll buy you a drink. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	acelightning 2008-07-21 03:13 am UTC (link)
	Didn't I already invite you to the party? I'm sure I did! In fact, it was either you or enya_lightworke who pointed out that my actual birthday falls on a Wednesday in 2047, so we're going to have to start the party the weekend before and just keep going until the weekend after. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	siliconshaman 2008-07-21 08:56 am UTC (link)
	True that...and I may point out that the days on the moon are rather longer, so your birthday would be around 28 earth-days long... (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	acelightning 2008-07-21 09:36 am UTC (link)
	i rather suspect that they'll use the Earth calendar for things like calculating dates. but with any luck at all, we can keep the party going until Yule ;-D (Reply to this) (Parent)

	brmj 2008-07-22 10:15 pm UTC (link)
	As will I. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	kengr 2008-07-21 01:27 am UTC (link)
	<sigh> Back in 1974 a friend and I made an appointment to meet in Luna City in 2001. Obviously, we didn't keep it. But back then, we only thought that getting the money for the ticket would be a problem. (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

	Where's my flying car, dammit? acelightning 2008-07-21 03:18 am UTC (link)
	Back in the 1950s (or maybe early '60s), I was among the children who bought a lovely legal-looking deed to "one square inch of the Moon". And when the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey came out, Pan Am was taking reservations for the first passenger flights. Heh. Pan Am went out of business, and the lunar property deed has long since vanished. (Reply to this) (Parent)

gridlore
2008-07-20 04:39 pm UTC (link)

Forget the Moon. What we need is a real space station (one with the ability to assemble larger vessels) followed by missions to the asteroid belt to start mining.

That, and working to make this project a reality.

We also need a reliable SSTO bird. The sadly abandoned DC-X would fit the bill perfectly. Critics pointed out that it could only lift 10,000lbs to orbit as designed. Well, 5 tons was about the capacity of a DC-3, and we won WWII with those. The key is building a lot of them, and having a fast turn around. Build 30, with a ten-day mission profile (total time between launches) and you have 15 tons of material leaving Earth every day once things get rolling. We'd still need heavy boosters for larger items, but the majority of missions could be handled by the SSTO.

Also note that you could easily carry 20 passengers to orbit with this vehicle.

(Reply to this)

kuremmu
2008-07-20 04:40 pm UTC (link)

True enough, Tom, but I see a big potential downside. If the Powers That Be when that is accomplished are anything like they are now, They will focus on the "without a native biosphere" part and take it as perfect justification to stop giving a shit about conservation and pollution and we will be living in (probably isolated, easy to keep under tight surveillance and control) domes here on Earth.

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	judifilksign 2008-07-20 05:20 pm UTC (link)
	I agree with a moonbase. It's a good "learning" for expansions to other planets, like Mars, if we figure out how to keep out harmful radiation without a gravity field. "It's logical, it's clear. Without a doubt, the only way to go from here is out." (Reply to this)

	kd5mdk 2008-07-20 06:14 pm UTC (link)
	That does assume we can do it, which I don't think anybody has proved yet. (Reply to this) (Thread)

	jcw_da_dmg 2008-07-20 07:57 pm UTC (link)
	Perhaps not. But when JFK made his moon speech that hadn't been proven yet either. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	zibblsnrt 2008-07-20 08:08 pm UTC (link)
	Short of those possessed of the blinkered anti-thought necessary to remain a believer in the idea that the moon landings were faked, the whole point of this post is that it was proven doable thirty-nine years ago today. (Reply to this) (Parent)

	siliconshaman 2008-07-20 10:34 pm UTC (link)
	There's nothing in the physical laws that say we can't. Even if we don't have the technology to do somethings cheaply [yet!] we could head out there and build using existing technology... The problem is that we lack the will not the means. (Reply to this) (Parent)

archiver_tim
2008-07-20 08:36 pm UTC (link)

I'd like to see that model mission to Mars, to bring what little material we need, combine it with what is on Mars and let the robots make rocket fuel for a trip back with a soil sample or three. Return vechile need only make it to Earth orbit, where it can meet up with a space station, space shuttle or dock with what it needs to get down to Earth on it's own. If we can find clear evidence of once-life on Mars, I think our understanding of life will be so much clearer, unlike my writting.

(Reply to this)

wizwom
2008-07-20 09:18 pm UTC (link)

When I view the heavens,
And the mountains of the Moon,
I remember that men stood there,
And hope we return soon.

For a man who makes a journey,
Nevermore going that way,
Is like a man who bakes a treat,
But burns the recipe that day.

The Moon is just a rock,
With some little water ice,
I cannot think dwelling there,
Would be so very nice.

Yet, still, what man may do,
Another may attempt,
A government may never crew,
so profit will redempt.

(Reply to this)

connor_campbell
2008-07-21 07:28 am UTC (link)

i think everything i would say has already been said by people much more informed and eloquent that i. so i will put this in: anyone ever read the book written by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and Michael Flynn, Fallen Angels? i think this excerpt about says it all: (and maybe you have all already seen this and heard it sung, but i am just really becoming a true, hard core, sci-fi fan)
(verse 1)
"Wanted fan in Luna City, wanted fan on Dune and Down, Wanted fan at Ophiuchus, wanted fan in Dydee-town. All across the sky they want me, am i flattered? Yes i am! If i could just reach orbit, then i'd be a wanted fan."
(verse 3) "wanted fan for plain sedition, like the singing of this tune. If NASA hadn't failed us we'd have cities on the moon. If it weren't for fucking NASA (or bushmonkey) we'd at least have walked on Mars. And if i can't make orbit, then i'll never reach the stars."

there is power in numbers. we jsut have to figure out how to speak louder and longer. and as stated above, working one-to-one, convincing more individuals that space is much more worthy than oil, war, and money. it is our survival.
just my two shillings...

(Reply to this)

	What would you really like to see done next with the space program? liddle_oldman 2008-07-21 03:55 pm UTC (link)
	Farside Observatory. Absolutely perfect viewing weather, zero light pollution (OK, other than the Earth and the Sun), shielded from Earth's radio noise, room for a very large array (and even bigger if you tie it in with Earth dishes). If there's a glitch, you walk over and fix it, rather than wait for the next shuttle launch. And it would be so very cool. (Reply to this)

Talk is cheep

brmj
2008-07-22 10:33 pm UTC (link)

Everyone here obviously understands how important this is and I have been hearing a lot of great ideas on the topic, but someone has to take the initiative. Why not us? If we get a substantial fraction of SF/Fantasy fandom and related geeky subcultures behind it and spread from there, maybe we could make this happen. I know that there is support for this sort of thing in the free software world, and if we get lucky, maybe we can get Google (for example) on board eventually through them. I'm not talking about any sort of crazy build-a-moon-rocket-in-your-back-yard scheme; instead we could work to bring together the necessary skills, funding and technology and try to swing public opinion in our favor. Anyone interested? We have nothing to loose (except some of our copious free time) and a universe to gain.

Ben

(Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Talk is cheep connor_campbell 2008-08-06 09:49 am UTC (link)
	you said it, i imagine there are a lot of us out here just waiting for someone to start the ball rolling...this could be it...so what are some ideas you have in mind? (Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: Talk is cheep

brmj
2008-08-08 07:43 am UTC (link)

(Posts deleted and rewritten for clarity)

The single most important thing we can do for now is recruiting people, followed by getting them in communication and somewhat organized. Above all, we need people who are interested in making this work. In addition to convincing people to directly help us, we must convince as much of the public at large as possible that space travel and colonization are important and worthwhile.

We could potentially keep a (entirely voluntary) directory of people who are supporting this, with useful skills, positions, contacts, resources, etc. listed to help connect people with what they can do to help, given the time and effort they are willing to spend.

Another worthwhile early step that ties in with the directory of project supporters would be to collect a list of what will be required to establish a permanent, more or less self sufficient presence off of this rock. Perhaps the requirements list could be in wiki format, with sort of a hierarchy of requirements and the page for each one describing it in detail and any progress being made on that front. This would allow us to better figure out what needs to be done and how to best accomplish it.

Once we have people willing to support this, we can begin trying to bring together the necessary elements for this to happen. Examples include helping EMC2 ( http://www.emc2fusion.org/ ,more info all over the net: google IEC Fusion or something) to get the $200 million in government or corporate funding (trust me, we need them to get it), writing congress in support of the space program, getting people working in complementary areas in contact with one another, etc. Those of us with the inclination and ability could even directly contribute to the effort in a number of ways, such as research. As I mentioned in a previous post, finding ways to make the things we need profitable enough to get companies with the money it will take behind it would also be useful.

I have quite a few ideas on the technical side of how a moon, mars or orbital base might work (a few of them even original), but here and now is not the time. I will mention, however, that a very long, superconducting loop of wire could be used to establish a magnetic field for radiation shielding and I recently had a bizarre idea about a laser-railgun launch system that I will have to get someone competent in related areas to check over.

If anyone has any ideas, commentary, criticism, flames, advice, input or anything else to add, please do so, and if anyone here is a physicist or something, please speak up so I can run my idea past you.

Ben Miller-Jacobson

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Moonbase?....ok.....

scotttheobtuse
2008-07-25 02:00 pm UTC (link)

Keeping up with advances in space science is kind of hard now. You have to get your info from the strangest places. I found out about this on the history channel, for instance. They are building a mag-lev based launch system. Think Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" EM catapults. The big hold-up in space exploration has always been getting it off the ground (pun intended)and into orbit. The new launch system will have an exit speed of 600+ mph. That doesn't sound like much until you think about how many tons of fuel is required to achieve this now. This, in addition to the savings in fuel container weight means much cheaper launch costs...not to mention the classic benefit from the space program; research. Who knows what Launch System mark II or mark III will be capable of? Fuel-free launches, perhaps? Now I don't want get on a rant now, but if you would all get together and elect me Dictator, here's what I would do......go to nuclear fusion, build a mag-lev system to replace air travel, on a continental basis, at least, finish the launch system, go to the moon, set up a mining colony to fuel the fusion plants and start building ships in orbit to go to the asteroid belt to set up a set of asteroid watch stations with a tug station to correct misguided rocks. So there! And by the way, I have a much more hopeful view of our future because of....end-of-the-world scenarios. I grew up in the fifties and was constantly bombarded with warnings...in movies, TV, books( I read science fiction, so you can guess how much), popular culture in general...hell, even school showed us those horrible little info films about hiding from THE BOMB under our desks. And guess what? It's fifty eight years later...and no mushroom clouds...or other Horrible Things. The admittedly Bad Things that are happening to our world have cures...look it up. The end is NOT near! By the way, Tom, I'm SO glad you're doing better and connected to the world now.
STILL wishing you were Wolverine, the Warwick clan(Scott in particular)

(Reply to this) (Thread)

	Re: Moonbase?....ok..... scotttheobtuse 2008-07-25 02:04 pm UTC (link)
	Damn...I DID go on a rant, didn't I?.....sorry (Reply to this) (Parent)

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